The energy paradox
The events of the last few months have set in train Vladimir Putin’s disappearance from the world stage. The only uncertainty is how long it will take, whether it will be months or years. It will happen due to unintended consequences – a concept first analysed in 1936 by American sociologist Robert Merton – of his Crimean annexation.
US Defense Secretary Robert Gates, in the memoir about his years serving under Presidents Bush and Obama, notes that during the Cold War Soviet interests were taken into account to avoid military conflict. However, “when Russia was weak in the 1990s and beyond, we did not take Russian interests seriously. We did a poor job of seeing the world from their point of view, and of managing the relationship for the long term.” He confesses that he “dutifully” supported the effort to bring Georgia and Ukraine into NATO, even knowing that this would feed Russia’s “paranoia” about the West. Continue reading...
Lessons from WWII as Russia conquers Crimea
Who is more influential? In the left corner sits Ed Balls, potential Chancellor of the UK if the Labour Party makes it into power in the 2015 election. On the right, his brother Andrew Balls, Deputy Chief Investment Officer at PIMCO, which controls $2 trillion worth of bonds.
Even assuming Ed B. makes it into power, his brother wins hands down. The UK government spends around £720 billion a year and most of it is already earmarked. Chancellors – pace all the kerfuffle around budget announcements – can only affect policy at the margin. Andrew B., on the other hand, is head of European bond markets with the capacity to strike fear in the hearts of Italian treasury ministers, among others. Continue reading...
Why the UK government needs to speak up
I was uncommonly pleased to traipse through immigration in Zurich, en route for a half term ski break. With the Swiss having recently voted to impose quotas on immigrants from the EU, I feared they might mistake my intentions and put me on the next plane back to London.
For something similar had happened before, as I detailed in last week’s Financial Times:
There was not a handcuff in sight during my speedy deportation from the UK in 1988. The blue-blazered, silver-haired official walked me along Heathrow’s corridors making embarrassed small talk about the weather. It was quite unlike 2013’s deportation of terrorist suspect Abu Qatada after an eight-year battle and a cost of £1.7m. Continue reading...